Atlanta Fed and NY Fed GDP estimates are so far apart, you can drive a truck through them

The New York Fed Nowcast estimate for third-quarter GDP growth comes out once a week. It is based on their model for growth given a range of inputs.  That model sees third-quarter growth at 14.1%. that is up from 14.0% last week. 

New York Fed now cast

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed also has a GDP model that they call the GDPNow model.  it is released more regularly. The last estimate was released on October 6 and it forecasts third-quarter GDP growth at 35.3%.  A new report is expected sometime today

Atlanta Fed GDP now

Ao in summary:

  • NY Fed at 14.1%
  • Atlanta Fed at 35.3%

That spread is so wide you can drive a truck through it. 

It also makes you wonder, maybe the regional Fed offices should get together and compare notes.  

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